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  • franklin
    09-27 11:11 AM
    A total of 2.5M cases pending (AOS and naturalization), only 1.2M are ready for action.
    For true backlog numbers look here, Ombudsman report, Page 14.
    http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/news/2007,0619-ombudsman.pdf

    1.3M backlogged cases TOTAL (includes naturalization), out of which more than 800K are retrogresed family-based AOS petitions, and what looks like 30K EB petitions (cannot be approved due to statutory limits). 300K cases in namecheck, maybe 10% of them are EB (EB is about 13% of green cards), so we are having about 60K truly backloged EB cases in March 2007.

    We know that cases that are current and not stuck in FBI checks are being approved farily fast, so my gut feeling is they have maybe 50-80K EB cases in active adjudication. Let's double-check -- out of 1.2 million cases ready for action, about a half is naturalization, and from the other half, ~13% would be EB - yep, 80K (EBs are the easiest to approve because there are no interviews or tests, so the percentage is likely less than 13%).

    So, in March 2007 there were a total of no more than 140K pending cases in I-485 stage of stocessing. Now in June-August EVERYONE who had an approved LC got to apply, and there were ~300K applications, while CIS gave out ~70K green cards, so we would have a total of 370K pending petitions. This estimate is surprisingly close to 13% of the total 2.5M backlog, so I would consider it good.

    Again, I absolutely do not believe there are more than 500K EB1-EB3 cases. There may be another 500K in the 'other worker' category, but this is not what we are talking about here.

    We can argue who is right on the numbers for a long time, The Ombudsman, who quote that they can not say for sure what the numbers are, or the kauffman Report who claim 1.1 million. Even if we go with your number of "no more than 500K" - thats a 3 year wait if there are no more country caps.

    Also from the Ombudsman:-
    "In FY 06, over 10,000 employment-based visas were lost, even though USCIS had an estimated 100,000 to 150,000 pending applications for employment-based green cards." - Pending applications for employment-based green cards means "application approved pending visa number availability" - ie all but approved - waiting for a visa number, not all 485 applications.

    "As of May 2007, USCIS reported a staggering 329,160 FBI name check cases pending"

    I'm obviously not adding those numbers together, but I really believe that the numbers are larger than we think.

    Remember to take out the visa's unsued each year (per the ombudsman, in the last 3 years, thats only 100k wasted) that brings down the number of visas available, and remember there are other visa paths into greencard application, not just H1B.

    They also think there are roughly about 170K at BEC... that haven't hit yet. Add that to the number - all with old PD so you better believe their dates will come current sooner.

    If you've read the Ombudsman's report, you should have figured out that things are NOT moving quickly

    I've just realized, are you looking at just 485 numbers and not everyone in the EB GC queue?

    Finally - if you've read the Ombudsman report from the past few years, they will look very similar to this years' one (although they gradually get more and more bleak). Nothing has change to make the situation better, so the expectation that all of a sudden things will get fast now still baffles me.




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  • chmur
    11-15 07:20 PM
    iol_joh:

    Ridiculing ideas presented by others and NOT suggesting any alternatives hardly lends any credibility to your post.

    what is your "sound long term strategy (12-18 months)"??




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  • dixie
    07-17 11:45 PM
    This clever trick isnt going to work forever. I understand a lot of you have already spent 8-9 years here waiting for a GC, but fresh H1-Bs like me fully know what the situation is and are mentally prepared with alternative plans for career advancement. Our strategy is to save like ants while here, make mimimal investments, apply for a GC and wait. If no reform is forthcoming, we will give up on the US as a long term option and head out much before we give the prime of our working careers to a dead-end job in this country.

    If a majority of the H1-Bs do that, what will the tech companies do ? They will be forced to send more jobs to our home countries. Come on, you cannot do all your work with fresh-off-the-boat H1Bs .. experience will always be needed. If they cannot get those experienced folks here, the jobs will simply go where we are (and will get done for an even lower price of course).It is already happening; retrogression will only accelerate it. Such a situation effectively amounts to training foreign workers, paying them and sending them home. It is a no-brainer who the real loser is in such a bargain : yes, it is us in the short term, but ultimately the US economy will pay a price.

    Current immigration policy is based on the assumption that our home countries will forever remain poor, and the US will have a never-ending stream of smart, hard-working people desperate to settle here. In a globalized world, that is fast becoming outdated.Sooner congress realises the better.


    Let us fact it. We need GCs and we have waited for x years. Now that only seems to be illusion that may happen some day, many years from now. Have we contributed to this country. Yes in many folds.
    Will the US govt provide relief. Probably not. They will certainly
    raise H1bs as they need more contributors to SS. All this SKIL etc is just to keep us going for a few more years. After a few more years, many will give up, but get used to living the way we live now. We just wont have the energy to complain. After a while it is human nature, at least in most cases to accept. If we accept we will continue here hoping, some day GC will happen. I believe the majority will fall into this category. There maybe a few who will leave. But then there will be thousand more new H1b coming in to do the work, chasing the GC illusion, contributing to SS, buying cars, paying rents keeping the economy going. The lawyers will make money. Employers will get indentured workers. The economy will benefit from their productivity. So all concerned except you and me will be OK.


    They understand the circle of life better than you and I do. It is about time we understand this. Once this sinks in, we will make the right choice, whet ever that maybe.




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  • txh1b
    08-21 06:00 PM
    but Indians (I am also an Indian -:) are a little reserved....I do not see a greeting from fellow Indians that easily.....again I am not saying Indians are bad (cause I too am one -;)
    ...

    No, it isn't the culture thing but it is the Amway/Quixtar thing. If one says hello or hi and has a smile on their face, 9 out of 10 times it isn't the person trying to be friendly but for a reason...The great pyramid scheme!



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  • msyedy
    05-31 08:20 PM
    Is there a way out... (Mandwaali nahee ho sakti) any compromise in this compromise immigration bill.
    Or
    We forget the who CIR thing and plan for something else.


    There are uglier things than sausages being made. For example, when Bernie Sanders gave a 30 minute speech to increase H1B fees and make H1B program useless, he brought a big chart and the whole enchilada to try to prove that H1B depresses wages.

    However, in the starting part of his speech, he said he supports the bill.

    The bill brings in 200,000 guest-workers each year (it was 400,000 before Bingaman amendment). However, according to him, that is just fine. When guest-workers come to US in numbers like 200,000 then they dont depress wages of the lowest income group in America. However, when hi-tech workers come here they depress wages.

    This is the kind of logic from people like Bernie Sanders and Co. that is uglier than watching sausages being made. Watching sausages being made might hurt your eyes, but this kind of logic hurts your head and can damage your brain's neurons.




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  • andy garcia
    09-27 02:47 PM
    The numbers game is really a 6 of one, half a dozen of the other - since we can only best guess it all - as I think this healthy debate has shown!


    Efficiency of processing is a HUGE problem! Why do you think the visa numbers have gone unused? Your statement perplexes me somewhat. The name check isn't the only reason that there are delays. The Ombudsman's 1st 3 annual reports documents where the inefficiencies are.

    In reality, its a complex problem that is a combination of many things;Inefficiencies in processing,Retrogression, country limits etc etc

    I'm sorry, you just piqued my interest. You just seemed to be saying "there is no problem"

    Efficiency of processing is a HUGE problem!. This is the biggest understatement. It should be a HUMONGOUS problem.

    Check these numbers from 2000 to 2003.

    I am quoting from the Report from CIS:

    "In recent years, including '02, the number of immigrants
    granted lawful permanent residence has been affected by an application backlog at INS. At the end of FY 2002,
    there were 966,000 adjustment of status cases pending a decision.

    They managed to issue 174,968 EB visas, even though the limit was much more.

    Now the real shock.

    The maximum number of visas allowed under the preference system in 2003 was 171,532 for EB immigrants.

    Surprise, they only issued 82,137.

    What happened?
    I will give you a hint NC



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  • ganguteli
    04-10 04:19 PM
    Reddog: We discussed enough on this Donor and Freeluncher's. You decided not to pay. Why still keep arguing about it?

    Why not you provide free lunch to your neighbor's every day? Over a period of time, those neighbor's will think it is their right to get Free lunch from you.

    If you are a student and not earning, you have every right to request for free access. You claim to be Highly educated and earning and you still want free ride?

    This was a smart reply.
    People are so used to getting everything for free.

    The starter of this thread never did anything all this while and when he has not got his greencard, he thinks he has the right to blame IV for his problems in life.




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  • kumhyd2
    07-03 02:39 AM
    Does any one have suggestions for good attorny's in San Diego for filing GC
    Or in Souther california for that matter.



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  • gdilla
    02-28 01:41 PM
    Since you are a Canadian you can apply for a visitor visa (B1) – by applying the visa we will be in legal status until a decision is taken. B1 visa is generally approved if you give the reason of finishing up matters in US (like selling house/cars/closing bank accounts/credit accounts etc). I guess you are asking just to be informed but if it really happens another option for you is TN1 – if you have not yet applied for 485.

    But they never know when you leave really, at least if you're canadian. By going home, all I do is give the CANADIAN immigration officer the i-94 paper with the h1 stamp when i enter canada if i don't plan on returning to the US again, at least on that visa. Plus, they never ask, so it's really up to you to give it to them. And getting a visitor visa, canadians automatically enter on 6month visitor status as default, no stamping required. If you're flying, all you have to do is tell them you're coming back to canada. If you drive across the border, they don't care to ask. So i guess i can just hop back to vancouver for a weekend and come back as a visitor and be fine then (to clean up affairs, or just hang out for 6 months).




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  • franklin
    09-25 04:30 PM
    Thanks, Andy. So, 80K LCs a year, 10%-15% of them will probably never get to AOS stage, 20% of those were duplicates (for people with petitions stuck in the backlog centers), so we are talking about 50-55K new labor certificates each year that will result in I-485. This is very consistent with 85K new capped H1Bs plus whatever number of exempt (non-profit research) H1Bs every year. So, we are talking about 100-110K total AOS applications (with dependents). Now lets take 140,000 EBs, substract Schedule A and EB1 (no need for LC), and there is probably 10K extra EB visas should be left over each year (quota less new potential EB petitions). Those are probably going to land in EB3 ROW. That means the retrogression will become less severe. What we are experiencing right now, is the rabbit that moves through the snake - the EB petitions resulting from a higher H1 cap several years ago.
    Let us not also forget that current estimates are that there are 1.1 million applications pending at all stages of the green card process. Notwithstanding the new additions each year.

    Not looking quite so quick still, I remain unconvinced that things will speed up.



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  • sundevil
    05-31 04:25 PM
    Yes, a majority Vote.

    "The motion to Lay on the Table is undebatable, and requires only a majority vote, notwithstanding the fact that if not taken from the table the question is suppressed."

    Is there some procedure that can undo "lie on the table"




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  • Jaime
    09-20 12:18 PM
    I was sick rest of the day.

    I hesitate every day in doing things that help them. So far I have taken temporary decisions to continue.

    It is mentally very draining!

    I totally understand what you are going through, been there myself! Don't mind those people, keep going and do this for YOURSELF! Yes, many people will benefit from our struggle without having moved a finger, that is sad but that always happens, in every struggle, in every issue. There are other very sad things such as the visa lottery, or the 1985 amnesty which saw thousands of people from overseas come to abuse that even if they didn't qualify, and all those people got a free ride! But you know what? They are there and they won't go away. It is our choice to stay and not go away, and we have to fight for that. Together, we are friends and family at IV. That was evident at the rally! Times may get trying at times, but we'll keep going and succeed!



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  • apb
    09-07 06:07 PM
    Scene at Consulate
    IO:--> Dear applicant, You can apply for a long process to getting your PR/GC and here are the deals. Apply with high fees. Get RFE answered within limited time frame or loose. Wait for labor (go through labor pain..:-) ), do not get/expect promotion, Oh ya get your well educated spouse, Make them sit at home, make them feel unproductive, pay all your taxes, pay your social security BUT do not expect anything back, In the process if your kids age out separate them from you (send them back), If you wish to study pay highest fees, if you get promoted stand in queue again, pay frequent medical fees, AP, EAD fees, and yes YOU can always TRACK RNs for them. You can whine, post your opinions, when we change policies on the fly and create more hardships even if you have stayed here for more than 6 years, you can call up our customer service, be imaginative and get to level 2 and still get yelled at, asked to wait for 90 days (std reply), etc, but you can always go to good forum like IV and instead of working on your cause, create confusion, DEMAND action, not contribute....etc.

    H1B applicant:--> SO WHAT IS THE CATCH.

    IO:--> YOU THA MAN. Welcome to USA. Land of the free home of the brave. But for you there will be no freedom and for your type..stay in fear.
    ---------------------

    Hope one more catch the vision of IV




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  • DallasBlue
    09-04 09:56 PM
    Jaime - SUPERTASTIC!!!

    don't foget to send your info to lobbyday@immigrationvoice.org

    => one more from lonestar state



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  • eastindia
    01-13 11:14 AM
    I see a lot of boiling blood and nice thoughts, If we can find out How much it would cost to pull out a Half page or Full Page AD on prominent news paper like NY Times or WSJ etc. Work on and create a fullpage/half page ad that would be a good start in opening eyes of congress/common people.

    Any thoughts.

    Read
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/26/us/26moveon.html?_r=1

    Full page is for $65000 in section A New York Times.

    If you want for specific day, it is for $142,083

    Now, How much do you want to contribute to this amount?

    People on this thread think this is some joke. By pledging 1K you cannot even get a mosquito out of country cap. You need million dollar first to start.




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  • snthampi
    05-17 01:03 PM
    Just sent the email. That was very easy. Thanks.



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  • desi3933
    06-20 09:29 AM
    I dont think this bill has or will have any favorable provisions for us unless a miracle occurs.

    I think the tech companies have cut a deal with the Senators through which they will have access to 115,000 H1Bs and more moving forward in lieu of no increase in EB green cards.

    Ask yourself a question. If you were running a big business - whom would you prefer -- GC Employees or H1-B Employees.

    What may be good for us may not be good for the other side.




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  • delhiguy79
    07-19 06:51 AM
    wat abt the 485 receipt number, did u recieve that.


    Hi sjpg,
    did u recieve the 485 receipt number as you are the only one who have send 485 with a cover letter till now.

    Please update us, it would really help us.

    Thanks.




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  • mkelekar
    07-19 11:30 PM
    If I file my wife's 485 separately, lawyer is doing mine and is not willing to include both together. My 140 is approved.

    can i just send my 140 approval notice with my wife's 485 and would that be enough? pl. help




    acecupid
    06-16 02:44 PM
    Dear Folks, I have a question:
    For example, if someone's Advance Parole document validity is terminating on (say for ex), July 16, 2009, then, should the person apply for renewing his/her application prior to July 16, 2009? In other words, should a person's application to renew his/her AP document be made prior to the termination of the current one, OR, could this application for renewal be made after the current AP document's validity expires (in this case after July 16, 2009)? Thanks a lot, friends.

    USCIS accepts AP renewal applications 120 days in advance of expiring AP. The normal processing time for AP is approx 1-2 months (usually it is about a month). Keep in mind that the new AP which is issued will have an immediate effective date from the date of issue and the start date will not be from the expiry date of old AP. So in most cases you will end up losing some days or even months. If you do not forsee any immediate need to travel you should wait till 30-40 days prior to old AP expiry and then apply. If your travel plans are unknown and you may have to travel if an urgent situation arises, then you should apply 120-90 days in advance to make sure you have AP validity at all times. You will obviously lose some days or months... but then who says everything that USCIS does is fair :)




    martiansoldier
    07-21 03:42 PM
    if you are a desi no reason for you to not know hindi mate....hamara bharat mahan

    Well, I've got a few reasons.

    1. I don't like the attitude that comes along with the people that speak it.
    2. I just don't like the language.
    3. I don't live anywhere close to a place where I must know Hindi to survive.
    4. The Indian Constitution recognises English as a subsidiary official language.
    5. If I have survived as long as I have without knowing Hindi, I'm sure I can survive without knowing Hindi for the rest of my life.

    Thaai mannae vanakkam!



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